Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 8.403564e-05 0.000100 0.000117 0.000136 0.000158 0.000181 0.000207
2025-01-12 6.064568e-05 0.000081 0.000104 0.000132 0.000165 0.000202 0.000246
2025-01-19 5.137656e-05 0.000074 0.000101 0.000135 0.000176 0.000224 0.000282
2025-01-26 3.979394e-05 0.000063 0.000092 0.000130 0.000178 0.000234 0.000305
2025-02-02 3.384565e-05 0.000057 0.000089 0.000131 0.000185 0.000250 0.000333
2025-02-09 2.802508e-05 0.000052 0.000084 0.000130 0.000190 0.000263 0.000358
2025-02-16 2.531282e-05 0.000050 0.000084 0.000134 0.000201 0.000284 0.000393
2025-02-23 2.190040e-05 0.000046 0.000082 0.000136 0.000208 0.000300 0.000422
2025-03-02 1.737756e-05 0.000040 0.000076 0.000130 0.000206 0.000304 0.000435
2025-03-09 1.421194e-05 0.000036 0.000072 0.000128 0.000208 0.000312 0.000453
2025-03-16 1.193338e-05 0.000033 0.000069 0.000127 0.000211 0.000322 0.000474
2025-03-23 1.028375e-05 0.000031 0.000068 0.000128 0.000217 0.000336 0.000500
2025-03-30 8.177499e-06 0.000028 0.000064 0.000127 0.000220 0.000347 0.000524
2025-04-06 6.094040e-06 0.000024 0.000060 0.000123 0.000220 0.000353 0.000542
2025-04-13 5.208391e-06 0.000023 0.000059 0.000126 0.000229 0.000372 0.000576
2025-04-20 3.670069e-06 0.000019 0.000055 0.000121 0.000226 0.000375 0.000589
2025-04-27 2.944509e-06 0.000018 0.000053 0.000121 0.000232 0.000390 0.000618
2025-05-04 2.209282e-06 0.000016 0.000051 0.000120 0.000235 0.000400 0.000641
2025-05-11 1.946422e-06 0.000016 0.000052 0.000125 0.000246 0.000423 0.000682
2025-05-18 1.538980e-06 0.000015 0.000051 0.000126 0.000253 0.000438 0.000712
2025-05-25 9.514235e-07 0.000012 0.000047 0.000121 0.000249 0.000439 0.000722
2025-06-01 6.111780e-07 0.000011 0.000044 0.000119 0.000249 0.000445 0.000740
2025-06-08 4.037915e-07 0.000010 0.000043 0.000118 0.000252 0.000456 0.000763